The fundamental logic of a cash flow forecast relies on the distinction between the flow of cash and the recording of accounting profit; cash reflects actual liquid assets available at a specific point in time.
Net Cash Flow is the result of subtracting total outflows from total inflows during a specific month. A positive figure indicates a surplus for that period, while a negative figure (often shown in brackets) indicates a deficit.
The Closing Balance represents the total cash available at the end of a month, calculated by adding the month's net cash flow to the Opening Balance (the cash available at the start of the month).
The mathematical relationship is expressed as:
Step 1: Aggregating Inflows: List all sources of cash coming in. Use the acronym SLIC (Sales, Loans, Interest, Capital) to categorize items. Calculate the total for each month.
Step 2: Itemizing Outflows: Detail every cash payment. Use the acronym SWURRS (Stock, Wages, Utilities, Rent, Repayments, Salaries) as a checklist. Sum these to find total monthly outflows.
Step 3: Calculating Net Position: Determine the net cash flow by subtracting total outflows from total inflows: .
Step 4: Balancing and Carrying Forward: Use the closing balance of one month as the opening balance for the next month. This ensures a continuous representation of the business's cash position.
The Carry-Forward Rule: Always check if the opening balance of Month B matches the closing balance of Month A. Examiners frequently leave gaps here to test your understanding of the flow.
Arithmetic Verification: If a net cash flow is negative (e.g., -\200$500$300$).
Interpreting Scenarios: When asked to solve a cash flow problem, match the solution to the cause. For example, if a shortage is caused by slow-paying customers, the best answer is to 'reduce credit periods' rather than 'increase sales'.
Profit Cash: A profitable business can still go insolvent if it lacks cash to pay immediate bills. This often happens to rapidly growing businesses that buy stock before receiving payment from customers.
Omission of Non-Operating Flows: Students often forget to include capital injections or loan receipts in inflows, focusing only on sales revenue.
Ignoring Timing: A forecast is only useful if it accurately predicts when cash will arrive. Assuming all sales are cash-based when the business offers credit will lead to an overly optimistic forecast.