Evaluating Demographic Impact: To determine if the New Deal was a success, historians analyze its impact on specific subgroups. This involves looking at wage data, employment rates, and legal protections for groups such as industrial workers, women, and ethnic minorities.
Statistical Benchmarking: Success is often measured by comparing 1933 economic indicators (12.8m unemployed) to 1939 or 1941 figures. However, historians must also account for the 'Roosevelt Recession' of 1937-38, which demonstrated the fragility of the recovery.
Comparative Institutional Analysis: Historians compare the US welfare system established in the 1930s with those of contemporary European nations. This method reveals that while the US was late to develop a welfare state, the New Deal brought it closer to international standards of social security.
| Feature | Relief Successes | Recovery Failures |
|---|---|---|
| Focus | Immediate survival and morale | Long-term economic growth |
| Examples | CCC, FERA, Soup kitchens | AAA (crop destruction), NRA codes |
| Outcome | Millions saved from starvation | Unemployment stayed above 10% |
Balance the Argument: In 'How far do you agree?' questions, you must present a balanced 'two-sided' argument. Never argue only for success or only for failure; provide specific evidence for both perspectives before reaching a nuanced conclusion.
The 1939 Benchmark: Always remember the key figure: 9.5 million unemployed in 1939. This is the single most powerful piece of evidence used by critics to argue that the New Deal did not fulfill its promise of economic recovery.
Identify Marginalized Gaps: To achieve higher marks, discuss the 'failure' of the New Deal in terms of what it omitted. Mentioning the lack of anti-lynching legislation or the exclusion of domestic workers from Social Security demonstrates a deep understanding of the New Deal's limitations.
The 'War Ended the Depression' Fallacy: While the Second World War finally solved the unemployment crisis, it is a mistake to say the New Deal did nothing. The New Deal provided the infrastructure (dams, airports, skilled labor) that allowed the US to mobilize so rapidly for war.
Assuming Universal Benefit: A common misconception is that all Americans loved the New Deal. In reality, it faced fierce opposition from both the political Right (who feared socialism) and the political Left (who thought it didn't go far enough), as well as from those who felt the NRA codes favored large businesses over small ones.