Key relationship: , where is the real interest rate, is the nominal policy-linked rate, and is expected inflation. Borrowing decisions depend more on than on alone, so expectation management is central to policy effectiveness.
Demand decomposition: where lower real rates typically raise and , and exchange-rate changes can alter . The same rate move can produce different results across cycles because confidence, debt structure, and banking conditions change.
Memory anchor: "Target above inflation path -> tighten; target below inflation path with slack -> ease." Use this rule with a brief note on expectations, because credibility can amplify or weaken the intended effect.